Monday, December 28, 2009

Stars – the unscientific way

So when setting up this blog I was struck with one of the options in the Profile page.

Show astrological signs?

Fair enough… I understand wanting to stay “hip” and “With it” but seriously… no one really believes that stars that might not even be there any more can dictate the events of our lives.

Oh...

31% of the public believes in astrology including 36% of women and 43% of those aged 25 to 29 but only 17% of people aged 65 and over, and 25% of men.”

So a third of the American populace believes in Astrology. OK, maybe the poll was flawed. It was from that long off time of 2003. Maybe a more recent poll would be more accurate.

Sigh

At least this revises the number to one in four. It also shows that Canada and Great Britain have comparable numbers. As for the improvement, two data points just aren’t enough to go off on and the six percent is likely within the noise of the studies. Show me a third study with declining numbers and then we will have a possible trend.

So let’s start from the top with this astrology thing.

Astrology is the pseudoscience that claims to be able to make predictions based on the position of the stars and the planets. Since the prediction they make for you is based on your sign it means that everyone on the planet has the same prediction as everyone else with their sign. With six and half billion people and only twelve signs this equals out to over five hundred million people having the same type of day as each other. Oh of course you could get a ‘personalized’ prediction. Which, depending on which astrologer you ask might get you a different answer.

Here is a quote from Liz Green (an astrologer):


“It depends on what you mean by "real." The zodiac doesn’t exist in concrete terms. It is the apparent path of the Sun around the Earth, which we have divided into twelve segments; each segment is assigned an image and a set of meanings and behaviour patterns. But the zodiac doesn’t exist in the sense that there are animals floating out there. So, on one level, the whole system is not real. This table we’re sitting at now is the kind of thing that we define as real. If you take reality as something subtler, and you approach reality as being the connections, links, resonances, or correspondences between things, then, yes, these patterns are real. But there is no way that they can be measured in a quantifiable sense, according to instruments of so-called reality. When you ask me that, the whole problem is that I don’t know what you mean by real. Or, rather, I do know what you mean, but if Richard Dawkins asked, "Is it real?" he would mean something quite different by "real" than I do.”

There are two important things to take away from that sentence.

“But there is no way that they can be measured in a quantifiable sense, according to instruments of so-called reality.”

The reason we use science is that it is measurable. If anything has any effect on the world the it is measurable, because we can measure that effect. Also, “So-called reality” is quite the way to put it. Which leads me to part number two.

“if Richard Dawkins asked, "Is it real?" he would mean something quite different by "real" than I do.”"

Unfortunately for her there is only one reality (multiple universes excepted). There is only one set of laws that govern the universe, wishing them to be different does not change those laws.

Astrology perpetuates by taking confirmation bias to an art form, remembering only those rare days when some small portion of your astrological prediction for the day actually comes true (or even tangentially true) then forgetting the days and predictions that just fell by the wayside. Astrologers increase the number of ‘hits’ by making their predictions vague enough to be interpreted with post-diction. Even if you could predict the future it is useless if you can’t figure out what it means until after the event you predicted (I think Nostradamus is the king of post-diction, but that’s a different post).

Lets take a side experiment here, here is a list of question from an astrology site:

“Questions About My Astrologial Services

Isn't All Astrology Just A Load Of Crap?

If I Order A Reading From You, How Will That Help Me Conceive?

How Long Have You Been A Professional Astrologer?

If I Order A Reading From You, How Will That Help Me Conceive?

Have You Had Many Cases So Far And How They Fared?

Is Infertility Astrology The Only Thing You Do?

What Is Medical Astrology And How Can It Be Of Use To Me?

Should'nt Astrological Readings Be Free?

What Is The Greatest Benefit Of Having You Do A Reading For Me?

Why Do I Need To Provide The Natal Data For My Partner/Husband?”

These questions are actually never answered on the site, lets answer them shall we? Hopefully they will appreciate the service and put the answers up

Q: Isn't All Astrology Just A Load Of Crap?

A: Yes

Q: If I Order A Reading From You, How Will That Help Me Conceive?

A: Well since there really isn’t any way for the placebo effect to do to help you conceive (maybe it could lower your stress levels a little which might help, but a water pill could do that. Or a massage, or meditation, or ANYTHING ELSE.)

Q: How Long Have You Been A Professional Astrologer?

A: OK, can’t answer for the guy but I don’t like the proximity of ‘professional’ and ‘astrologer’. Professionals requires Consistency in their work.

Q: If I Order A Reading From You, How Will That Help Me Conceive?

A: … again, oh man I knew I should not have watched Primer last night, it messes with you.

Q: Have You Had Many Cases So Far And How They Fared?

A: I would much like to see the answer to this one, especially in lets say a controlled environment where we could measure the results… hmm pregnancy astrology. that has me thinking. Hey, Liz Green! found a way to test that ‘reality’ thing of yours.

Q: Is Infertility Astrology The Only Thing You Do?

A: I would hope not, very boring life. He should have some hobbies, get outdoors, meet people.

Q: What Is Medical Astrology And How Can It Be Of Use To Me?

A: Medical astrology? OK, that really is one I had not heard about before coming to this site. I suppose that so many things in nature cure people that it is actually impossible to get sick. On a side note, would any english majors please tell me if ‘astrology’ is a proper noun. It seems to be capitalized everywhere I go.

Q: Should'nt Astrological Readings Be Free?

A: If it were free it would just be a waste of time and not a con.

Q: What Is The Greatest Benefit Of Having You Do A Reading For Me?

A: If he has a good reading voice or can do impressions then could be entertaining. Wonder if he does parties, I would love to have someone do a live reading of fine literature.

Q: Why Do I Need To Provide The Natal Data For My Partner/Husband?”

A: Don’t do it! It’s a trap! OK, maybe I over-reacted. No one on the internet would ever want to misuse any information of yours ever. Especially when it’s something that couldn’t be used to steal your identity or make them seem more credible to bilk you out of money.


If I seem a little less serious about this issue it really is because I cannot take it seriously. It takes every bit of self restraint I have to not make this page an echo of the answer to question one. Constantly when debating astrology and when writing this the part of my brain that does it’s best to stop me from making straw men keeps telling me that I have to be making some of this up to make debating it easier.

Oh, and while writing this I have had this running in constant loop. That probably did not help the tone.

No comments:

Post a Comment